大型铁路客运站大客流预警及应对方案设计 ——以北京西站为例

铁路客运站作为旅客集散地,出入站客流量会因为节假日、大规模列车晚点或停运等突发事件出现大规模聚集。当车站出现高密度客流时,若未能及时采取有效的应对措施,极易出现踩踏等事故。为应对车站大客流情况,首先制定了黄、橙、红三级预警机制。其中黄、橙预警用于应对车站高密度客流情况,而红色等级预警则用于应对短时间内车站需迅速疏散客流的紧急情形和大量客流长时间无法乘车离开的情形。最后重点研究了基于不同等级预警的应对方案。所提出的大型客运站大客流预警与应对方案实际应用于北京西站,经过多次春运和暑运检测,起到了良好的效果。     

土地利用变化中农户脆弱性研究——一个理论分析框架及基于中国中部五省的调研实证

农村土地流转是发生在我国农村的重要社会经济现象,既关系到土地供给的总体结构与变化,也关系到城市化和工业化的进程,更关系到农户的生存状况。论文在分析当前农户脆弱性研究进展的基础上提出了一种土地利用变化中农户脆弱性理论分析框架,该分析框架包括暴露性指数EI、敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI。根据量化后的SI和AI,可以计算出农户的脆弱性指数VI。论文以中国中部经济区5个省份：河南、湖北、湖南、江西和安徽作为案例研究区域,在大规模农户调研的基础上,选取了定量测度敏感性指数SI和自适应能力指数AI的指标体系,运用几何平均数算法对其进行量化,并由此分别计算出各省份农地转入户和转出户的脆弱性指数VI。最后,论文将农户脆弱性指数VI与暴露性指数（流转面积强度EI_A和流转时间强度EI_T）的关系进行了分析。     

基于层次分析与模糊综合评价的事故应急预案评估

对应急预案的评估是应急救援的重要组成部分。为评估企业安全生产事故应急预案的优劣,提出了一种层析分析和模糊综合评价相结合的方法。按照科学性、完整性等原则构建了一个包含5个一级要素及28个二级要素的企业安全生产事故应急预案评估指标体系。通过所建立的指标体系对某企业突发安全事故应急预案进行完整性和有效性评估。该研究对企业安全生产事故应急预案的编制和改进、定量评价及评估的软件化具有一定的指导意义。     

基于DEA和Malmquist指数的煤矿安全投入效率评价

为了系统的评价煤矿安全投入效率,采用DEA（数据包络分析）方法,选取我国1991~2010年煤矿安全投入产出数据构建DEA模型,其中煤矿安全投入指标为采煤机械化程度、工程技术人员百分比、颁布煤矿安全法规数和行业标准,产出指标为煤矿百万吨死亡率。根据构建的DEA模型对每年的效率进行分析和评价,并提出建议。同时运用Malmquist指数（全要素生产力指数）对煤矿安全投入效率进行分解研究。研究结果表明,从静态上看,我国仅有1993年和2010年当年的煤矿安全投入和产出都达到了最优状态,并且随着煤矿安全投入逐年增加,煤矿安全投入技术效率、纯技术效率、规模效率逐年提升。从动态上看,我国煤矿安全投入Malmquist指数的提高对技术的依赖很明显,无论是技术进步还是技术效率的提高都会相应的提高Malmquist指数。     

急冷器建造中的质量保证

本文以百万吨乙烯装置的关键设备裂解气急冷器建造为例,从设计视角对其建造过程中重要环节质量控制进行剖析,详细解读了压力容器建造质量保证体系运行的基本要务。压力容器建造质量保证的关键在于合理制定并严格执行符合设计标准规范要求的质量计划,尤其是建造过程各环节的工艺卡制定与控制点的检查确认要深入到位。如此得出：压力容器建造质量计划的执行既是压力容器质量保证体系有效运行的见证,更是以建造过程控制达到不产生不合格进而实现压力容器本质安全的根本保证。     

生态脆弱性评价在矿区规划环评中的应用研究 ——以阜新矿区为例

以辽宁阜新矿区总体规划环评为例,基于生态环境指数,生态敏感性和景观空间结构等指标构建矿区开发生态脆弱性评价指标体系,运用层次分析和综合指数法评价和划分区域生态脆弱性等级,利用GIS技术并结合法规要求将规划矿区划分为适宜、优化、适度、限制和禁止开采等5类地区.评价结果表明,阜新矿区生态脆弱性整体较高,脆弱度属于4级和5级的区块分别约占规划总面积的51.38%和39.36%,且已建和规划新建煤矿全部处在脆弱性较高的区域范围内,矿区开发与生态保护之间的矛盾突出.     

The distribution,metabolism and toxicity of 14c-DDT in model aquarium tanks with fish and sediment simulating a tropical marine environment

Studies conducted on the distribution, fate and metabolism of DDT in a model ecosystem simulating a tropical marine environment of fish, Gobious nudiceps, Lethrinus harak, Gobious keinesis, Gobious nebulosis and white shrimp (Panaeus setiferus), show that DDT concentration in the water decreases rapidly within the first 24?h. Rapid accumulation of the pesticide in the biota also reaches a maximum level in 24?h before gradually declining. The bioaccumulation factors calculated for the fish species (G. keinesis) and white shrimp (P. Setiferus) were 270 and 351, respectively, after 24?h. There was a steady build up of DDT residues in the sediment during the first 24?h which continued to a maximum concentration of 6.66?ng/g in the seawater/fish/sediment ecosystem after 3 weeks and 5.27?ng/g in the seawater/shrimps/sediment ecosystem after 2.7 days. The depuration of the accumulated pesticide was slow with only 54% lost in G. nudiceps within 3 days of exposure in fresh sea water. By contrast, depuration was fast in the white shrimp, which lost 97% of the accumulated pesticide under the same conditions. DDT was found to be toxic to two of the fish species (G. nebulosis and L. harak) and to white shrimp, and the degree of toxicity was dependent on the particular species. The 24?h LC₅₀ at room temperature for the fish species G. nebulosis and white shrimp was found to be 0.011 and 0.116?mg/kg, respectively. These levels are comparable to the ones recorded for the temperate organisms. Degradation of DDT to its primary metabolites, DDE and DDD, was found in all the compartments of the ecosystem with DDE being the major metabolite in the fish, shrimps and sediment, while in seawater, DDD dominated as the major metabolite.     

Toxicity of endosulfan on growth,photosynthesis, and nitrogenase activity in two species of Nostoc (Nostoc muscorum and Nostoc calcicola)

Treatments of the cyanobacteria Nostoc muscorum and Nostoc calcicola with the insecticide endosulfan (5, 10, and 20?µg?mL^?1) inhibited growth, photosynthetic pigments, photosynthetic, and nitrogenase activities. The sensitivity of N. muscorum to endosulfan was higher than that of N. calcicola. The toxic effect of endosulfan was more pronounced on phycocyanin; however, a considerable reduction in chlorophyll a and carotenoids was also noticed. ¹⁴C-fixation appeared to be more sensitive to the insecticide than photosynthetic oxygen evolution. Endosulfan caused strong inhibition of photosystem (PS) II activity whereas PS I was least affected. The inhibition of PS II activity was partially restored by electron donors (DPC, NH₂OH, and MnCl₂) at low dose of endosulfan. Nitrogenase activity was significantly suppressed in both species by the endosulfan at high dose (20?µg?mL^?1). On the basis of our comparative analysis, N. calcicola was found to be endosulfan resistant and can be used in paddy fields for better productivity under pesticide stress.     

Quantitative Pollution Spill Risk Assessment: Using A Gis-Based System

Federal and State agencies have recently advocated risk-based analysis as a mechanism for advancing regulatory reform and safety determination in marine systems. the present investigation promotes this objective through the development of risk-based environmental planning strategies for oil spill contingency plans. This alternative approach to contingency planning departs from conventional methodology by employing quantitative risk assessment methods to identify hazardous oil spill zones and sensitive environmental areas, R_o and R_e respectively. the product of this conversion is referenced on a single “Risk” layer within a Geographic Information System (GIS) framework allowing coastal managers to evaluate natural resource data with associated elements of oil spill risk. As a new tool for coastal pollution management, risk-based environmental planning strategies have shown potential for evolving more efficient oil spill contingency plans.     

基于GIS在城市数字规划模型的研究

针对GIS在数字城市规划中的要求,提出了GIS数字城市规划概念及其在城市数字规划中的作用.根据GIS在城市数字规划中的服务功能建立了相应的数学模型,并对城市规划中所涉及的的公众参与冲突的协调机制模型、多元韦伯模型的概念进行了介绍.在此基础上对GIS在城市数字规划管理以及城市空间规划中的应用进行讨论.并证明GIS技术在数字城市规划中能起到重要的作用.参5.